Progress Report

Dear All,
I would like to update everyone on the work I have carried out so far with regard to the project. So far I did the following analysis.
1, Analysis of the Life Expectancy by Gender and at different ages such as ( life exp. at birth, life exp. @ 30, life exp @ 60 and life exp @ 65.) The results showed me that there is a significant difference in life expectancy at older age by gender. More detailed report will accompany the analysis.
2, The second part of the analysis is to calculate the saving amount gained from increasing retirement age. I have historical data from 2000 to 2011 on the # of OASI and I made the projection by fitting a trend line and I found out the change from each year for the coming 30 years.  In this case what I did is that I found the changes from each year and multiplied by the average annual benefit * 30 year trearsury bond rate approx (3%). This will be annual saving if we increase ret. age by 1year. Like wise for 2yrs and 3years. Then I found the total saving over 5 years range starting from 2012 projected to 2046. I hope this would make sense.

Thanks,
Kidane

Hi Guys!

I am not feeling well and I went back home. I am not coming to the group meeting.

Life Tables

Don't know if this particular source was posted in the previous entry, but the professor in my geodemographics course just gave us this source today. It was published just last month and gives the 2007 life tables for the US population broken down by sex and race.

US Life Tables

Mortality Tables

Found some mortality tables that vary not only by sex, but by race. They have the tables first by all races all sexes, then all races male and all races female, then both sexes white, white female, white male, both sexes black, black female, black male. I found lots more information and downloaded it all and we'll just have to see what everyone wants to do. I think that this would be really great to use especially if we want to do some computations on our own as well.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality_tables.htm

G1(Suggested Reseach Questions

1) How raising the retirement age will solve the deficit problem?

2) What is the social impact of raising the retirement age on a certain demographic group (the demographic group is to be determined later)?

3) Would raising the early retirement age solve the deficit problem? If yes, how much it should be raised to solve the problem? And, what is the social impact of this raise on a specific demographic group?

Demographic Information- Baby Boomers

US profile by Age/Population: http://www2.census.gov/geo/maps/dc10_thematic/2010_Profile/2010_Profile_Map_United_States.pdf

DOL Employment Status by Age, Sex, and Race: http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat3.pdf

Dohm: Gauging the Labor Force effects of retiring baby-boomers (2000): http://0-content.ebscohost.com.library.unl.edu/pdf14_16/pdf/2000/MLR/01Jul00/3582732.pdf?T=P&P=AN&K=3582732&S=R&D=bah&EbscoContent=dGJyMNXb4kSeqK840dvuOLCmr0mep7FSsKe4S7WWxWXS&ContentCustomer=dGJyMPGrsEmvrbVQuePfgeyx44Dt6fIA

Gustman et al.: Defined Contribution Plans and Vulnerability of Retirement Age http://www.nber.org/2009rrc/1.2%20Gustman,%20Steinmeier,%20Tabatabai-revised.pdf

McKinsey Quarterly: Why boomers will have to work longer. http://moodyinvestmentadvisors.com/McKinsey%20Baby%20Boomers.pdf

Some SS Retirement Age links

http://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/gspan5.html

http://www.ssa.gov/history/1983amend.html

http://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/comp2/F098-021.html

http://www.policyalmanac.org/social_welfare/archive/crs_social_security_reform.shtml

http://www.watsonwyatt.com/us/pubs/insider/showarticle.asp?ArticleID=17217

http://books.google.com/books?id=3NbWOww4N-MC&lpg=PA475&ots=AemuEV1LxN&dq=studies%20done%20on%20increasing%20the%20retirement%20age%20in%201983&pg=PA475#v=onepage&q&f=false